Natural Newark 2012

Natural Newark's continuing coverage of the 2012 Presidential election
DELEGATE COUNT
1.155 needed to win

Projections:

496 Mitt Romney
236 Rick Santorum
141 Newt Gingrich
66 Ron Paul

GENERAL ELECTION HEAD TO HEAD
(RCP Averag)

50% President Obama*
vs.
46.1% Mitt Romney
42.1% Rick Santorum
41.8% Ron Paul
36.2% Newt Gingrich

PRIMARY RESULTS

TOTAL POPULAR VOTES SO FAR
**

3,472,365
Romney
2,282,245 Santorum
2,101,951 Gingrich
949,207 Ron Paul 

MISSISSIPPI

33%
Rick Santorum
31% Newt Gingrich
30% Mitt Romney
4% Ron Paul

HAWAI'I

45%
Mitt Romney
25% Rick Santorum
18% Ron Paul
11% Newt Gingrich

ALABAMA

35%
Rick Santorum
29% Newt Gingrich
29% Mitt Romney
5% Ron Paul

VIRGIN ISLANDS

29%
Ron Paul
26% Mitt Romney
6% Rick Santorum
5% Newt Gingrich

NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS

87%
Mitt Romney
6% Rick Santorum
3% Ron Paul
3% Newt Gingrich

GUAM

96%
Mitt Romney
4% Uncommitted

KANSAS

51%
Rick Santorum
21% Mitt Romney
14% Newt Gingrich
13% Ron Paul

VIRGINIA

60%
Mitt Romney
40% Ron Paul

VERMONT

40%
Mitt Romney
25% Ron Paul
24% Rick Santorum
8% Newt Gingrich

TENNESSEE


37%
Rick Santorum
28% Mitt Romney
24% Newt Gingrich
9% Ron Paul

OKLAHOMA

34%
Rick Santorum
28% Mitt Romney
27% Newt Gingrich
10% Ron Paul

OHIO

38%
Mitt Romney
37% Rick Santorum
15% Newt Gingrich
9% Ron Paul

NORTH DAKOTA

40%
Rick Santorum
28% Ron Paul
24% Mitt Romney
8% Newt Gingrich

MASSACHUSETTS

72%
Mitt Romney
12% Rick Santorum
11% Ron Paul
5% Newt GIngrich

IDAHO

62%
Mitt Romney
18% Rick Santorum
18% Ron Paul
2% Newt Gingrich

GEORGIA

47%
Newt Gingrich
26% Mitt Romney
20% Rick Santorum
7% Ron Paul

ALASKA

33%
Mitt Romney
29% Rick Santorum
24% Ron Paul
14% Newt Gingrich

WASHINGTON

38%
Mitt Romney
25% Ron Paul
24% Rick Santorum
10% Newt Gingrich

WYOMING

39%
Mitt Romney
32% Rick Santorum
21% Ron Paul
8% Newt Gingrich

MICHIGAN

41%
Mitt Romney
38% Rick Santorum
12% Ron Paul
6% Newt Gingrich

ARIZONA

47%
Mitt Romney
26 Rick Santorum
16% Newt Gingrich
8% Ron Paul

MINNESOTA

45% Rick Santorum
27% Ron Paul
17% Mitt Romney
11% Newt Gingrich

COLORADO

40%
Rick Santorum
35% Mitt Romney
13% Newt Gingrich
12% Ron Paul

NEVADA

55%
Mitt Romney
21% Newt Gingrich
19% Rick Santorum
10% Ron Paul

FLORIDA

46%
Mitt Romney
32% Newt Gingrich
13% Rick Santorum
7% Ron Paul

SOUTH CAROLINA

40% Newt Gingrich
28% Mitt Romney
17% Rick Santorum
13% Ron Paul
1% Herman Cain

NEW HAMPSHIRE

39%
Mitt Romney
23% Ron Paul
17% Jon Huntsman
9% Newt Gingrich
9% Rick Santorum
1% Rick Perry

IOWA CAUCUS

24.6
% Rick Santorum
24.5% Mitt Romney
21.4% Ron Paul
13.3% Newt Gingrich
10.3% Rick Perry
5% Michele Bachmann
.6% Jon Huntsman
.3% Other

*President Obama scores between 47.1% (against Mitt Romney) to 50.7% (against Newt Gingrich). We gave the President 50% and adjusted the GOP candidates' percentage accordingly to allow for an easier comparison.
See the raw results here.


**Not all votes counted

***Non-binding  primary, caucus held March 19 for delegates
PRIMARIES/CAUCUSES SO FAR



THE CANDIDATES




REPUBLICANS ELIMINATED



Pre-Florida analysis: Newt's hit the highest numbers seen in the GOP polls in Florida so far, in mid-December, but after collapsing before finishing 4th in Iowa and 5th in New Hampshire, only led again in Florida for a day or two after his semi-surprise win in South Carolina, while Mitt Romney has been steadily building support as his money and organization dominates among Florida Republicans. The primary is the first open only to registered Republicans, and up to a third of the vote Tuesday will be 65+. The state has voted for the winner in every Presidential election since 1992, when Bill Clinton barely lost with, Ross Perot taking 20% in Florida and 19% nationally. Polls show a dead heat between President Obama and Mitt Romney in Florida in a hypothetical match-up.  Expect Romney to take it handily.

Post South Carolina analysis:  Even if Mitt Romney is Hillary Clinton 2008, Gingrich is no Obama so look for Mitt to lock up the nomination anyway, even if he has to bring in Ron Paul or Rick Santorum to get the delegate count.





ORIGINAL COVERAGE

Cain endorses Gingrich


Ignoring Ron Paul

Iowa Caucus Analysis

Pres at 50% in NJ

Who is Herman Cain?

Who is Rick Perry?

Cornel West on Obama

NEWS STREAM
Click for by candidate

3/10. Santorum cedes economy, focuses on foreign policy

3/8.
Obama campaign releasing documentary

3/8.
Gingrich jumps the shark

3/7. Obama campaign: Romney on "death march" to nod

2/29.
Long primary sapping Republicans

2/29.
Romney survives MI

2/26. Gingrich: President's apology a "surrender" in Afghanistan

2/26. Santorum: Romney uses teleprompter, not me

2/26. Santorum win in Michigan would throw GOP into chaos

2/25. Mitt Romney's Cadillacs

2/23. Romney looks for Tea Party vote, Santorum looks for cash

2/22. Obama hits Santorum

2/20. Santorum: Democrats "anti-science," not me

2/19. Santorum denies questioning President Obama's faith

2/19.
Romney tries to make Michigan home

2/19.
Gingrich focusing on Super Tuesday

2/19.
Colbert back on TV

2/18. Romney might have lost to Ron Paul in Maine

2/18.
Social issues and the Santorum surge

2/18.
Santorum attacks Obama on pre-natal care

2/13. Newt fades fast

2/12.
Rick Santorum defends views on women

2/11. After three losses, Mitt Romney beats Ron Paul, just barely, in Maine


2/8. Romney glitter bomber arrested and charged

2/8. Does Newt still matter?

2/7. President's re-election campaign pivots, shills for the Super PAC

2/7.
Romney then and now

2/5. Romney wins Nevada

2/5.
Ron Paul to go on past disappointing Nevada

2/5.
Youth double down on Ron Paul in Nevada

2/5.
Santorum keeps shooting at Newt

2/3. Romney focuses on President, Congress

2/3. Gingrich hits Mitt Romney on poor

2/2. Trump endorses Mitt

2/2.
Romney unconcerned with Gingrich Florida lawsuit

1/29.
Santorum daughter sick

1/28. Romney, Newt Gingrich resort to namecalling

1/28. NBC News asks Mitt Romney to pull ad

1/27. Santorum: No abortion for rape, make the best of a bad situation

1/25.
Gingrich the cheater

1/23.
Romney on Gingrich: "highly erratic"

1/23.
Tax lawyers question Gingrich's 2010 returns

1/22.
Newt dismisses ethics

1/21.
Perry's unsure return to the Texas Capitol

1/20.
Al Green: President "nailed" my song

1/20.
Mitt hits Newt

1/20.
Colbert, Cain hit SC

1/19.
First Obama campaign ad targets Kochs

1/19.
Mitt the job creator?

1/19.
Newt's third wife

1/19.
Newt's daughters: Open marriage claim untrue

1/16.
Colbert PAC launches anti-Romney ad

1/16.
Huntsman departure limited impact

1/16.
They want the GOP primaries to be over

1/15.
Is Stephen Colbert running for President?

1/14.
Cons pick tricky Rick

1/14.
Romney spins Bain

1/13.
Judge rejects Virginia GOP ballot appeal

1/13.
Romney strikes back

1/12.
Palin to Romney: Prove Bain job creation

1/12.
Romney, Newt tied up in SC, Santorum in the mix

1/11. Obama raising money

1/9.
Stop Romney campaign stops at South Carolina

1/8. Heat's on Romney

1/7.
Ron Paul in it to win it?

EARLIER


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